Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 11 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, October 11, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 11/1347Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/0217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 11/1135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 514 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (12 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Oct 069 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 006/005-008/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/25/15

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