From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, October 13, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 13/0002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 067
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 008/008-005/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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