From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, October 14, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/1507Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1507Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 777 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 066
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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