Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, October 14, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/1507Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1507Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 777 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Oct 066 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10

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