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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 December 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 15/0812Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/1850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/1659Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct). III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Oct 067 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 006/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/10/10


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