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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 16/1628Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Oct 066 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 006/005-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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