SpaceRef

SpaceRef


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, October 17, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 16/2217Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0757Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/0345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Oct 066 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


// end //

More status reports and news releases or top stories.

Please follow SpaceRef on Twitter and Like us on Facebook.

SpaceRef Newsletter