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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 Octber 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, October 19, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 19/0708Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1751Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 230 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 066
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 066/066/066
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  006/005-009/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    05/40/25

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