From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, October 19, 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 19/0708Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1751Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 230 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 066
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/005-009/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 05/40/25
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