Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 October 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, October 20, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 19/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2020Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Oct 065 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 009/012-007/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 30/25/05

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