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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 4 November 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, November 4, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 04/2046Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/0614Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0910Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2389 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Nov 071 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 008/008-009/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/30/25


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