Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 November 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, November 8, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagneticfield has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 07/2129Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 08/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1124 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov). III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Nov 070 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 005/005-008/010-011/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/35 Minor Storm 01/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/40/50

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