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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 28 November 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, November 28, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 27/2254Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/2305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/1659Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached apeak level of 1290 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 070
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

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