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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2019

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, December 5, 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 361 km/s at 05/2048Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/1149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 122 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec). III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Dec 071 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/20


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