Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 February 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, February 10, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 09/2327Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3795 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (13 Feb). III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Feb 070 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 010/012-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/30/10

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