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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, February 17, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 17/2004Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb). III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Feb 071 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 008/008-008/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/30/25


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