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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 May 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, May 21, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 20/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 132 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May). III. Event probabilities 22 May-24 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 May 070 Predicted 22 May-24 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 May 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 005/005-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/05/05


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