Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 July 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, July 31, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 31/1530Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (02 Aug). III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jul 072 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 073/073/071 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 007/008-010/012-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/15 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 30/40/25

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