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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 September 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, September 10, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 09/2337Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0443Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3580 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep). III. Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Sep 069 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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