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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 October 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, October 15, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 309 km/s at 15/2032Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/2049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 210 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct). III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Oct 074 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 074/074/072 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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