Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 October 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, October 18, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 355 km/s at 18/0837Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 211 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet levels on day one (19 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels onday two (20 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Oct). III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Oct 076 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 075/074/074 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 006/005-007/008-011/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/30 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/20/45

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