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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, October 22, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 21/2132Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/0455Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct). III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Oct 075 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 015/020-013/015-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/35 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 10/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 65/65/50


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