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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, October 23, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 23/1906Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 23/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 23/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 621 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Oct 072 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 009/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/020-012/015-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/40 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/50/65


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