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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 16 November 2020

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, November 16, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 16/0330Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 16/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 16/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 482 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov). III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Nov 077 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 075 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 005/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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