Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 7 January 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, January 7, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 06/2224Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Jan, 09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Jan). III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Jan 075 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 085 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 006/005-006/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/15/25

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