Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 January 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, January 8, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 08/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan). III. Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jan 075 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 085 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 005/005-008/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/25/25

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