Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 February 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 17/0625Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/2122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Feb). III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Feb 072 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-006/005-010/016 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/35 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/10 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 10/10/50

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