From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, February 18, 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 17/2321Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0616Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (21 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 071
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 006/005-007/008-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/50
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