Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 February 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, February 18, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 17/2321Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0616Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (21 Feb). III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Feb 071 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 006/005-007/008-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/35 Minor Storm 01/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/25/50

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