Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 February 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, February 21, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 21/1236Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/0503Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/0726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6701 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb). III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Feb 075 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 081 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 015/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 015/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 008/010-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 05/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/45/45

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