Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 February 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, February 22, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 22/0002Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9239 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (23 Feb, 24 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (25 Feb). III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Feb 076 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 081 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 018/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 016/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 014/022-020/025-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/45/15 Minor Storm 25/30/01 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/05/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 55/70/20

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