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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 February 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 24/0822Z. Total IMF reached 9 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22370 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Feb 081 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 081 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 012/012-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/05/05 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 40/10/10


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