Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 March 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, March 1, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 01/0902Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 01/0307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1074 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar). III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 Mar 071 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 071/071/070 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 079 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 017/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 014/018-011/012-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/25/20 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 60/40/30

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