From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, April 1, 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 01/0521Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/2239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr, 04 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 078
Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 073/073/071
90 Day Mean 01 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20
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