Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 31 July 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Saturday, July 31, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 30/2102Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 31/1817Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reacheda peak level of 379 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet to unsettled

III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jul 076 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 074/072/072 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 079 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 010/012-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/20

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