Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 September 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Thursday, September 23, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep, 26 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 23/1621Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1247 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (26 Sep). III. Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Sep 090 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 090/092/095 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 011/015-007/008-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/45 Minor Storm 10/15/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 40/50/75

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