Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 September 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, September 24, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 24/0701Z from Region 2871 (S28E01). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 24/0830Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 309 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (27 Sep). III. Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Sep 088 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 088/086/082 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 009/010-011/018-020/028 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/30 Minor Storm 10/35/40 Major-severe storm 01/10/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 35/70/75

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