Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 8 October 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, October 8, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/1108Z from Region 2882 (N20E13). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 311 km/s at 07/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Oct). III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Oct 092 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 082 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 008/008-007/008-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/30 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 25/20/40

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