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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. the largest event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13/1833Z from Region 2882 (N17W55). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 12/2211Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 12/2251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct). III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct Class M 05/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/05/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Oct 084 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 084/082/080 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 083 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 032/048 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-006/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/25/25


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