Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 October 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, October 17, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (18 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 17/0111Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 17/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 17/1038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reacheda peak level of 251 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (20 Oct). III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Oct 077 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 078/080/080 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 083 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 009/012-012/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 35/35/30

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