Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21November 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, November 21, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 21/1219Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1911Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 711 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov). III. Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Nov 079 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 078/078/080 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 088 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 009/010-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/10 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 40/10/10

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