Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 26 November 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, November 26, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 25/2116Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 26/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 26/1551Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2341 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Nov, 28 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Nov). III. Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Nov 092 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 092/090/090 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 087 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 013/016-016/018-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/15 Minor Storm 25/25/05 Major-severe storm 05/10/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/65/25

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