From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, November 29, 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 29/0515Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 090
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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