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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 17 January 2022

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, January 17, 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 17/1415Z from Region 2930 (N21W45). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 628 km/s at 16/2127Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/0504Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/2102Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2021 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jan, 20 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (19 Jan). III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jan 114 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 114/110/108 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 096 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 016/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 010/010-006/005-007/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/20 Minor Storm 10/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 30/20/25


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