Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 January 2022

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1/Sf flare observed at 18/1744Z from Region 2929 (N07W58). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 18/1310Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1919Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4360 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan). III. Event probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan Class M 20/20/20 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jan 115 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 097 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 008/008-007/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan-21 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/25

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