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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 25 April 2022

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Monday, April 25, 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/0402Z from Region 2993 (N19W45). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 25/2043Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/2151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0402Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 390 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr). III. Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Apr 157 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 160/160/140 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 118 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 006/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20


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