From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, April 29, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/0730Z from Region 2996 (N25W53). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (30 Apr) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (01 May, 02 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic 29/0727Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/1231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 28/2124Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 29/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2955 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M 25/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 124
Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 29 Apr 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10
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