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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 May 2022

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 24/0922Z from Region 3017 (S17W86). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (25 May, 26 May) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 24/0115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 968 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (26 May, 27 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (25 May, 26 May). III. Event probabilities 25 May-27 May Class M 35/25/15 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 May 147 Predicted 25 May-27 May 146/144/140 90 Day Mean 24 May 127 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 006/005-010/012-011/014 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/30 Minor Storm 01/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 15/40/40


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