Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 14 Jul 2003

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 409 (N15E55) produced several C-class events through the period. The largest was a C8 flare at 14/0120 UTC which was optically correlated with the SXI imagery. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot count and exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominately low. Region 409 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active through the period. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible with the passage of a coronal hole high speed wind stream

III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

• Class M 40/40/40
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 14 Jul 127
• Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 130/130/125
• 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 125

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 009/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 018/018
• Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 020/025-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/35/25
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 25/25/25
• Major-severe storm 15/15/15

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