SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 409 (N15E55) produced several C-class events through the period. The largest was a C8 flare at 14/0120 UTC which was optically correlated with the SXI imagery. This region has grown in white light area and sunspot count and exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominately low. Region 409 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled to active through the period. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible with the passage of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
B. High Latitudes