Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Oct 2008

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 30 Oct 2008

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Thursday, October 30, 2008
Source: Space Environment Center (NOAA) - Comments

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. New-cycle polarity Region 1007 (N35E15) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities ranged from 632 to 723 km/sec during the period. IMF Bz varied from 06 to -05 nT during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit increased to high levels at 30/1605Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (31 October) with a chance for active levels at high latitudes. Mostly quiet levels are expected during days 2 - 3 (01 - 02 November).

III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 30 Oct 067
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 068/069/069
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 016/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 013/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/20/10
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

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