Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An isolated low-level B-class flare occurred. Region 1007 (N35W72) continued to gradually decay as it approached the west limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (06 November). Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels on day 2 (07 November) due to a recurrent hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 3 (08 November) as coronal hole effects subside.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Nov 068
• Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 068/069/070
• 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 001/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-020/030-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/50/30
• Minor storm 01/35/10
• Major-severe storm 01/10/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/25/35
• Minor storm 01/50/15
• Major-severe storm 01/20/05

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