Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Nov 2008

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Nov 2008

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Friday, November 7, 2008
Source: - Comments

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1007 (N35W84) was stable as it approached the west limb. No new active regions were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from active to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels at high latitudes on day 1 (07 November) due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 2 (08 November). A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (09 November) as coronal hole effects subside.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 06 Nov 069
Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 069/070/070
90 Day Mean 06 Nov 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/030-010/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 50/30/10
Minor storm 35/10/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/35/15
Minor storm 50/15/05
Major-severe storm 20/05/01

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