Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Nov 2008

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Nov 2008

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Friday, November 7, 2008
Source: - Comments

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 07 Nov 2008
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless during most of the period. Region 1007 (N35W97) was stable as it crossed the west limb early in the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) commenced early in the period. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from 282 to 511 km/sec during the period. IMF changes associated with the CH HSS included increased Bt (peak 14 nT at 07/1202Z) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (minimum -10 nT at 07/2057Z).

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels on day 1 (08 November) as the CH HSS continues. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during the remainder of the period (09 - 10 November) as the CH HSS subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 07 Nov 068
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 010/015-007/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/15/10
Minor storm 20/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

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